A Day of Experimentation

Results from 26th March - Day 20

I tried some new things today and although I ended the day down by about 6% I was glad I did it. This is a small setback in financial terms but a leap forward in understanding the markets and strategies that work and those that dont. I dont have all the answers now but at least I know to avoid certain types of strategy. The gains can be good but they are always ofset by losses. The approach I am taking about is in- race trading. The reason why I looked at this was becuase I still dont understand how to trade races where there is no clear favourite and/or the odds are longer than say 4:1. I find that I have to make alot of ticks on these races as the green up trade reduces the overall tick profit substantially. I cant see that its worth the effort. So I decided on these races I would try trading them in running.

The more I trade the more I am beginning to appreciate that it may take more time than I expected to get into a general style that suits me and that I can apply daily to the horse racing market. Until that happens I think I will be taking some small steps forward and some medium size steps backawards. My overall net position may not improve as I go through this experience/learning curve. I am ok with that, as long as I never forget that learning new ideas must never be at the expense of capital preservation.

Tomorrrow I will go back to pre race trading only.

A very respectable day

Results from 20th March - Day 19

If I could trade every day as well as I did today I would be a very happy man and a reasonably successful trader to boot. I was very happy with 4 losses all adding up to less than a pound. Coming to terms with the losses and not chasing them has helped me immeasurably over the last few days. I still work very hard at trying to minimise them.

I have to admit to being very lucky on the 16:50 at Lingfield where I backed the favourite in running and waited for an opportunity to lay off. As the race was closing the favourite was on its own so I left the back bet stand and colected a healthy profit. I know this isnt trading strctly speaking but I am feeling quite comfortable with it as a strategy once in a while on tight favourites.

Even taking this trade away from the days results I am very pleased overall. I am off on holiday now for a week so will have maybe 1 or 2 more chances to trade before the end of March. If I can maintain current progress I should show a decent improvement over februarys results.

The Good Run continues....

Results from 19th March - Day 18



If I could trade like this every day I would be very happy! There were very few mistakes made today and I felt like I really got into my stride. I left a couple of losses unredded and I should have kept discipline and redded them up but that aside it was good profit for the day. A 75% winning rate is roughly what I am aiming for and so this was about right today too.

I have been trading for a month now and I am pleased with progress. I've proven to myself yet again that small low risk gains are all that is required on daily basis. There is no need to aim for high risky returns. I havent made any money overall but I havent lost any either. One of my original goals was to not lose money and I will try and maintain that standard. Both my previous attempts at trading have ended within 4 weeks so I have passed one hurdle!

I am off on holiday next week so I wont be trading at all. It will give me some to review what I have done and to consider the next level as there are some races where I just do not know what to do and my lack of experience is limiting my options for trading them. I will increase my tick size but will still keep it below the maximum I could use as I am not 100% happy with how quickly the loss can build up if the trade goes against me.

An Astonishing Bounceback...

Results from 18th March - Day 17:



Todays results couldnt have come as a greater surprise to me after yesterdays abysmal performance. I cant say I really did that much different today than I did yesterday and that remains puzzling. I was very pleased with the discipline once again especially after a shaky start. I tried not to be influenced by another losing trade but adjusted my trade per tick size downward just to be more cautious.

I also tried a new technique and although I made good returns on both I am not sure I would necessarily recommend them as strategies. On both the 14:20 at Warwick and the 14:40 at Cheltenham I decided to back the favourite in running about a minute after the off. The odds were very short and I planned to lay them both off before the race completed but I got slightly carried away with the odds shortening in super quick time and before I knew it the favourites had crossed the line first in both races. Not really trading I know and not low risk hence my caution in advocating it as a strategy.

Both wins set me up well for the day but I decided not to follow that plan again and it was back to regular trading for the rest of the day. Approximately 75% of races were won restoring my faith in my trading ability.
I have to say you cant help but get over confident and slighty relaxed as the day goes on so I am taking todays result as an exception and wil be back to trying to achieve more modest gains from tomorrow onwards.

A Day in Hell...but still alive

Results from 17th March - Day 16:



It was a day when absolutely nothing went right. Virtually every time I traded the price went against me. I ended up losing on 10 out of 16 races, my percentage has never been that bad in one day. My ability to read and react was also at an all time low. Despite the continual bombardment of counter trades I managed to remain fairly calm which is one of the positives I took from the day. I agreed and wrote down beforehand that I would accept the losses and not chase them (see previous post). I am happy to report that I did both so I was pleased that I remained disciplined throughout. I redded up all my losses too which helps to accept the loss and move on.

The other good news is that despite the damage to my book value I am still in a position to continue trading and this proves that remaining disciplined allows you to do just that. Its a big setback of course and I am not happy with it, but I know I am still in the game. Reading Peter Webbs recent post about delayed gratification was opportune and puts today into perspective.

The bigger problem to resolve is how to improve on my trading skills....!

Back to normaiity

Results from 14th March - Day 15:



I made a firm commitment on saturday afternoon before trading that I would accept losses without emotion. On the whole I did manage to achieve that but I felt that I lost more races than I would like and certainly a higher percentage than normal. Having said that the day ended in profit overall so I have to be pleased with that. Small steps forward are all I am after.

I have re-read some of my notes on trading pschology and I intend to implement this principle in trading this week:

Before starting to trade, use the “Goal for the day” technique and write the goal down. It may be avoiding something you have done in trading the day before, lke taking a position in running. To each of the goals add an 'or-else' scenario. Then re-enact that scenario – re-live the results of not following your plan. You need to be emotionally connected to the danger of the ‘or else’ scenario. You are now making this goal motivational and far more effective. Also trading goals should reflect some strengths and not all be weakness based. This helps to reinforce what you are good at as well as improve on the things you are bad at.

I will report back later on this week how I get on.

Good riddance Cheltenham

Results from 13th March - Day 14:



Oh dear waht a horrendous day! I found it very hard to get anything right today as the results testify. The one ray of sunshine was Kauto Star in the 15:20 at Cheltenham upon which I had my best single trade to date.

The Cheltenham races on the whole perpexed me: I didnt know how to trade most of them so ended up selectively dutching a few of them at 95% of book value and weighting the return on the horses at tighter odds. This worked ok until the 16:40 where I fired in a dutching trade about a minute before the off. Several trades didnt get matched and on a few of the runners, such as Faltering Fullback and Andytown the unmatched trades were asking for odds of 1000:1 for some strange reason?! The race then went off and I started to panic a bit trying to work out what had happened and what to do. I then realised Andytown was in with a winning chance I tried to fire in a back bet but didnt get matched on that either. The rest is history - Andytown went on to win and I was £50 down.

The trouble actually started at the race prior - the 16:15 at Fackenham where I layed Grasp at 2.64 only to see it immediately shoot out to the 4's. I realsised that I would lose more by closing the trade rather than letting the £20 lay trade stand so I left it to go in running and Grasp delighted everyone except me by going on to win!

That was £70 down on two consecutive races! 100% of my stake. I sat watching the screen completely dumbfounded for several minutes. I didnt even know what I had done wrong and wasnt sure what the lesson learnt was. This was no moment of madness, this was being caught out be two very unexpected events. I will put it down to lack of experience and the having thought about further the lesson here is not to run before you can walk. I dont think I am trading badly. On the whole I am doing things correctly and I am certainly not giving up but maybe I am trying to push things along too quickly and trading races which arent suitable for my very small stakes.

I have decided that I am going to top up my account with £100 and go back to 20p tick sizes. Its just going to take alot longer than I thought to get to where I want to be.

I will update this post in the morning once I have thought about events some more. For the meantime I am going to go relax and get drunk!

I hope everyone else made a better day of it than I did today.

Evening Races.

Results from 11th March - Day 13:



You cant escape the media coverage of Cheltenham at the moment. Thats all very well if you can trade every day but its frustrating for me as I am only trading as and when I can.

In an attempt to do something I settled down in front of the PC, fired up Bet Angel and tried to trade the evening races at Kempton Park. I dont know if its because there is only a single evening event on at but it seemed that the money was not arriving during the time frame that it does for afternoon racing when there is only 5 to 10 minutes between events.

In any event it wasnt a succesful attempt - 2 draws and 2 small losses before I decided it wasnt worth the effort. The positive ecperience if there was one, was that I was not drawn into chasing the losses. They occurred and so I accepted them, simple as that. I can claw back that loss on friday afternoon if I stay disciplined.

Does anyone bother trading the evening races at the moment and do you have Much success?

Things To Do on Non-Trading Days

Just some ideas I had of things to work on that the outcome of which will hopefully translate into better trading:

• Use Camtasia Screen Recorder to record trading for a day (pretty big files though I would think)
• Analyse the output - work out what was done well and what wasnt. Document the findings.
  
• From the recordings define some trading strategies that would work for different types of races.
• Spend an afternoon observing the races without trading them, see if you learn anything.
• continue to read up on the psychology of trading.

Please comment if you have any useful ideas.

A day of Reflection

No trading for me today, as I only really get a chance to look at the markets towards and during the weekends. Having an enforced break is no bad thing as it allows me to step away from the daily trading and spend some time analysing what I am doing right and do more of it, and also to analyse what I am doing wrong and try to eliminate it.

Yesterdays single race £20 loss was painful but in a way I am glad it happened. Success in trading conspires against you as much as failure so obviously does. Success lulls you into a false sense of security and encourages greed and impatience. Despite continually reminding myself that it couldnt continue, I deluded myself into thinking that I had stopped losing races!

So rather than accept the initial £6 trading loss I encountered on sundays 17:05 race at Warwick, (which actually never materialised as the horse in question did not go on to win) I decided to chase the loss by backing at £20 in running. I am sure that if I had not gone on such a long run without a losing race that I would not have made that fateful decision, bizarre as that may seem.

If I look at that initial loss now of £6 I know that I can win that back in 5 or so races at my present win rate, its really no big deal. However the actual £20 loss will take me 2 to 3 days of trading so it really wasnt worth the risk. Fortunately for me the amount hasnt dented my trading book too much but its still a reasonable setback.

I am going to accept losses from now on and I am going to refer back to this post if I have any more doubts about what action to take. I did a spreadsheet today forecasting how the small regular wins I have made so far can add up to substantial sums over time if I just repeat what I have done so far, even including losses. So the moral of the story is to keep focussing on the long term goal of small daily gains, keep moving the tick size upwards as my stake increases and accept the inevitable loss when it happens.

A big loss and a timely reminder

Results from 8th March - Day 12:



Trading Account balance: +£73.28

Well it had to happen. Over 150 races traded since I started and I hadnt done anything stupid. Today I did something stupid. On reflection I think that having gone so many races without any significant losses had put me into a frame of mind where I wasnt prepared to accept a big loss when it actually arrived.

As to the race in question: I completely mis-timed all my entry points on the 17:05 at Warwick. I wish I had recorded it so I could analyse how badly I traded. By the start of the race I was sitting on a £6 loss. Rather than accept it and move on I chose to back it in-running for £20, hoping to wipe out the loss and take a profit. Of course the horse didnt win meaning my loss was now £20 instead of £6. This also meant that if I had accepted the inintial £6 loss it wouldnt have materialised anyway!

It blemished an otherwise diciplined well thought out days trading so I am not too disheartened. In fact its a timely reminder of core strategy and the only thing more important than NOT TO LOSE MONEY which is DONT CHASE LOSSES.

Ticking along nicely

Results from 7th March - Day 11:



I was pleased with saturdays trading results on the whole. Only one loss on the last race blemished an otherwise perfect afternoon. Even the zero return races were actually trading results netting out for zero rather than a loss making trade failing to win a race so thats very reassuring.

Some of the races today I struggled to find any oportunities - I have no idea what to do when you have a race with 18 runners with no clear favourite and the tightest odds on any horse are in the sixes? If anyone has some suggestions I would be keen to hear from you!

So I remained selective and chose races that suited my style. I refrained from dutching too, I tihnk its not worth the risk until my trading book is much much larger.

Looks good but too much risk

Results from 6th March - Day 10:



The results look pretty good today on reflection, but I felt I struggled all day and didnt feel confident. The positive gains hide the fact that I took more risk today than was necessary on several races. I initially tried scalping on a few races and ended up in the red. Rather than accept the loss I decided to selectively dutch the race and on two occasions I nearly lost the race to an unbacked selection. Luck was on my side but it made me realise it wont always be and that I must discontinue this practice. I could have lost most of my stake if luck had gone against me.

On a positive outlook I was pleased that I went 14 races with only 1 loss and 1 draw. My stats for March are looking good, I have only lost 1 race in 27 races over 3 days of trading.

I am still being selective with my trading - some races I just cant see an opportunity so end up sitting on the fence the whole way through. I am glad I am not jumping in to positions blindly but equally I need to broaden my understanding and knowledge of trading tactics to have the tools of the trade to deal with all eventualities. Maybe that's asking too much?

I am still very much focused on NOT LOSING MONEY as my primary goal. Once I have entered a trade my finger hovers over the 'current close' button in bet angel at all times. Generally I dont wait for more than a shift 2 ticks against me before I bail out. I may be down at that point but it least I am then in a position to take advantage of any opportunities at the current price rather than sitting and waiting during valuable minutes for the price to come back in the favour of my original position. Having said that I must get used to accepting the occasional loss as its part of trading - not letting a losing position change my tactics is vital (Lesson learnt)

I hope to trade again for some of tomorrows afternoon races - its back to basics again I think. My trading book is now at £74 so my tick size per trade is reset to 35p per tick.

Better stop before I get cocky...

Well hardly given the totals involved, but in all honestly I havent lost for 25 races. On the 20:20 race at Wolverhampton the favourite drifted to 6.6 and I had scalped to £1.50. I decided to hold back on greening up and took the position in-running hoping the odds would come in a bit and improve my return across the card. Before I knew it Bridgewater Boys had crossed the line first netting me £1.44! I stopped trading at that point before my luck ran out.

Results from 4th March - Day 9:

My third attempt at Trading

This is not my first attempt at sports trading. I had two brief flirtations last year. Needless to say that both attempts were ultimately unsuccessful.
The odds are heavily stacked against success for the novice trader. It takes time and money to learn how to trade but invariably your trading account is reduced to zero before you really get to grips with implementing the right strategies for the various types of markets/race you encounter.
Unlimited trading funds are not the answer to the problem. Nor is paper-trading as it doesnt replicate the stresses of real-life trading.

Despite having lost approximately £300 in a my first month of frenzied pre-race trading I still remained firmly confident that there was scope to improve and become successful. I decided that I needed some trading education and as luck would have it Peter Webb had just announced further one day seminars - I didnt hesitate to book a place.

The great thing about that day in Hook is that it provided many years worth of market experience into 1 days education. It provided the tools of the trade - types of market, ways to approach markets, considering all the options, correct entry points and correct exit points. I would rate it as an absolute must-do for anyone seriously interested in sports trading.

However on my return to trading, I immediately fell into another trap designed to relieve you of your money in double quick time - over-confidence. I was convinced that I knew what I was doing. I held on to losing positions in desperate hope, charged into markets before any analysis and went in running without a plan. Despite a strong start I once again fell into bad ways. Within another 4 weeks I had lost my second starting stake of £200.

To be honest at that point I nearly gave up. But I was so intrigued as to what successful traders had that I started to read up on the subject - something I had never considered up to that point. Ridiculous really when you think about it - why do we assume that we can be immediately successful at something when most skills in life take many months and years of serious studying.
I also stumbled on the missing ingredient and I think I must have been blind to not have pickd up on it earlier - trading psychology.

I will elaborate more on this in further posts but for now I will say that it is entirely repsonsible for my third attempt at trading and my current approach to each race, each day - Assess options, assess risk, implement, learn, remain neutral, STAY DISCIPLINED and most importantly - DO NOT LOSE MONEY.
Over-confidence is dangerous, already I am trying to suppress it and not get overly analytical about money and returns at this stage of progress. I must end the month with the same amount as I started with, thats all I am after as this achievement allows me to stay in the game and continue learning.

Enough for now...

100% success

Results from 1st March - Day 8:


Trading Account balance: +£60.15