A Day of Experimentation

Results from 26th March - Day 20

I tried some new things today and although I ended the day down by about 6% I was glad I did it. This is a small setback in financial terms but a leap forward in understanding the markets and strategies that work and those that dont. I dont have all the answers now but at least I know to avoid certain types of strategy. The gains can be good but they are always ofset by losses. The approach I am taking about is in- race trading. The reason why I looked at this was becuase I still dont understand how to trade races where there is no clear favourite and/or the odds are longer than say 4:1. I find that I have to make alot of ticks on these races as the green up trade reduces the overall tick profit substantially. I cant see that its worth the effort. So I decided on these races I would try trading them in running.

The more I trade the more I am beginning to appreciate that it may take more time than I expected to get into a general style that suits me and that I can apply daily to the horse racing market. Until that happens I think I will be taking some small steps forward and some medium size steps backawards. My overall net position may not improve as I go through this experience/learning curve. I am ok with that, as long as I never forget that learning new ideas must never be at the expense of capital preservation.

Tomorrrow I will go back to pre race trading only.

A very respectable day

Results from 20th March - Day 19

If I could trade every day as well as I did today I would be a very happy man and a reasonably successful trader to boot. I was very happy with 4 losses all adding up to less than a pound. Coming to terms with the losses and not chasing them has helped me immeasurably over the last few days. I still work very hard at trying to minimise them.

I have to admit to being very lucky on the 16:50 at Lingfield where I backed the favourite in running and waited for an opportunity to lay off. As the race was closing the favourite was on its own so I left the back bet stand and colected a healthy profit. I know this isnt trading strctly speaking but I am feeling quite comfortable with it as a strategy once in a while on tight favourites.

Even taking this trade away from the days results I am very pleased overall. I am off on holiday now for a week so will have maybe 1 or 2 more chances to trade before the end of March. If I can maintain current progress I should show a decent improvement over februarys results.

The Good Run continues....

Results from 19th March - Day 18



If I could trade like this every day I would be very happy! There were very few mistakes made today and I felt like I really got into my stride. I left a couple of losses unredded and I should have kept discipline and redded them up but that aside it was good profit for the day. A 75% winning rate is roughly what I am aiming for and so this was about right today too.

I have been trading for a month now and I am pleased with progress. I've proven to myself yet again that small low risk gains are all that is required on daily basis. There is no need to aim for high risky returns. I havent made any money overall but I havent lost any either. One of my original goals was to not lose money and I will try and maintain that standard. Both my previous attempts at trading have ended within 4 weeks so I have passed one hurdle!

I am off on holiday next week so I wont be trading at all. It will give me some to review what I have done and to consider the next level as there are some races where I just do not know what to do and my lack of experience is limiting my options for trading them. I will increase my tick size but will still keep it below the maximum I could use as I am not 100% happy with how quickly the loss can build up if the trade goes against me.

An Astonishing Bounceback...

Results from 18th March - Day 17:



Todays results couldnt have come as a greater surprise to me after yesterdays abysmal performance. I cant say I really did that much different today than I did yesterday and that remains puzzling. I was very pleased with the discipline once again especially after a shaky start. I tried not to be influenced by another losing trade but adjusted my trade per tick size downward just to be more cautious.

I also tried a new technique and although I made good returns on both I am not sure I would necessarily recommend them as strategies. On both the 14:20 at Warwick and the 14:40 at Cheltenham I decided to back the favourite in running about a minute after the off. The odds were very short and I planned to lay them both off before the race completed but I got slightly carried away with the odds shortening in super quick time and before I knew it the favourites had crossed the line first in both races. Not really trading I know and not low risk hence my caution in advocating it as a strategy.

Both wins set me up well for the day but I decided not to follow that plan again and it was back to regular trading for the rest of the day. Approximately 75% of races were won restoring my faith in my trading ability.
I have to say you cant help but get over confident and slighty relaxed as the day goes on so I am taking todays result as an exception and wil be back to trying to achieve more modest gains from tomorrow onwards.

A Day in Hell...but still alive

Results from 17th March - Day 16:



It was a day when absolutely nothing went right. Virtually every time I traded the price went against me. I ended up losing on 10 out of 16 races, my percentage has never been that bad in one day. My ability to read and react was also at an all time low. Despite the continual bombardment of counter trades I managed to remain fairly calm which is one of the positives I took from the day. I agreed and wrote down beforehand that I would accept the losses and not chase them (see previous post). I am happy to report that I did both so I was pleased that I remained disciplined throughout. I redded up all my losses too which helps to accept the loss and move on.

The other good news is that despite the damage to my book value I am still in a position to continue trading and this proves that remaining disciplined allows you to do just that. Its a big setback of course and I am not happy with it, but I know I am still in the game. Reading Peter Webbs recent post about delayed gratification was opportune and puts today into perspective.

The bigger problem to resolve is how to improve on my trading skills....!

Back to normaiity

Results from 14th March - Day 15:



I made a firm commitment on saturday afternoon before trading that I would accept losses without emotion. On the whole I did manage to achieve that but I felt that I lost more races than I would like and certainly a higher percentage than normal. Having said that the day ended in profit overall so I have to be pleased with that. Small steps forward are all I am after.

I have re-read some of my notes on trading pschology and I intend to implement this principle in trading this week:

Before starting to trade, use the “Goal for the day” technique and write the goal down. It may be avoiding something you have done in trading the day before, lke taking a position in running. To each of the goals add an 'or-else' scenario. Then re-enact that scenario – re-live the results of not following your plan. You need to be emotionally connected to the danger of the ‘or else’ scenario. You are now making this goal motivational and far more effective. Also trading goals should reflect some strengths and not all be weakness based. This helps to reinforce what you are good at as well as improve on the things you are bad at.

I will report back later on this week how I get on.

Good riddance Cheltenham

Results from 13th March - Day 14:



Oh dear waht a horrendous day! I found it very hard to get anything right today as the results testify. The one ray of sunshine was Kauto Star in the 15:20 at Cheltenham upon which I had my best single trade to date.

The Cheltenham races on the whole perpexed me: I didnt know how to trade most of them so ended up selectively dutching a few of them at 95% of book value and weighting the return on the horses at tighter odds. This worked ok until the 16:40 where I fired in a dutching trade about a minute before the off. Several trades didnt get matched and on a few of the runners, such as Faltering Fullback and Andytown the unmatched trades were asking for odds of 1000:1 for some strange reason?! The race then went off and I started to panic a bit trying to work out what had happened and what to do. I then realised Andytown was in with a winning chance I tried to fire in a back bet but didnt get matched on that either. The rest is history - Andytown went on to win and I was £50 down.

The trouble actually started at the race prior - the 16:15 at Fackenham where I layed Grasp at 2.64 only to see it immediately shoot out to the 4's. I realsised that I would lose more by closing the trade rather than letting the £20 lay trade stand so I left it to go in running and Grasp delighted everyone except me by going on to win!

That was £70 down on two consecutive races! 100% of my stake. I sat watching the screen completely dumbfounded for several minutes. I didnt even know what I had done wrong and wasnt sure what the lesson learnt was. This was no moment of madness, this was being caught out be two very unexpected events. I will put it down to lack of experience and the having thought about further the lesson here is not to run before you can walk. I dont think I am trading badly. On the whole I am doing things correctly and I am certainly not giving up but maybe I am trying to push things along too quickly and trading races which arent suitable for my very small stakes.

I have decided that I am going to top up my account with £100 and go back to 20p tick sizes. Its just going to take alot longer than I thought to get to where I want to be.

I will update this post in the morning once I have thought about events some more. For the meantime I am going to go relax and get drunk!

I hope everyone else made a better day of it than I did today.