A day of Reflection

No trading for me today, as I only really get a chance to look at the markets towards and during the weekends. Having an enforced break is no bad thing as it allows me to step away from the daily trading and spend some time analysing what I am doing right and do more of it, and also to analyse what I am doing wrong and try to eliminate it.

Yesterdays single race £20 loss was painful but in a way I am glad it happened. Success in trading conspires against you as much as failure so obviously does. Success lulls you into a false sense of security and encourages greed and impatience. Despite continually reminding myself that it couldnt continue, I deluded myself into thinking that I had stopped losing races!

So rather than accept the initial £6 trading loss I encountered on sundays 17:05 race at Warwick, (which actually never materialised as the horse in question did not go on to win) I decided to chase the loss by backing at £20 in running. I am sure that if I had not gone on such a long run without a losing race that I would not have made that fateful decision, bizarre as that may seem.

If I look at that initial loss now of £6 I know that I can win that back in 5 or so races at my present win rate, its really no big deal. However the actual £20 loss will take me 2 to 3 days of trading so it really wasnt worth the risk. Fortunately for me the amount hasnt dented my trading book too much but its still a reasonable setback.

I am going to accept losses from now on and I am going to refer back to this post if I have any more doubts about what action to take. I did a spreadsheet today forecasting how the small regular wins I have made so far can add up to substantial sums over time if I just repeat what I have done so far, even including losses. So the moral of the story is to keep focussing on the long term goal of small daily gains, keep moving the tick size upwards as my stake increases and accept the inevitable loss when it happens.

A big loss and a timely reminder

Results from 8th March - Day 12:



Trading Account balance: +£73.28

Well it had to happen. Over 150 races traded since I started and I hadnt done anything stupid. Today I did something stupid. On reflection I think that having gone so many races without any significant losses had put me into a frame of mind where I wasnt prepared to accept a big loss when it actually arrived.

As to the race in question: I completely mis-timed all my entry points on the 17:05 at Warwick. I wish I had recorded it so I could analyse how badly I traded. By the start of the race I was sitting on a £6 loss. Rather than accept it and move on I chose to back it in-running for £20, hoping to wipe out the loss and take a profit. Of course the horse didnt win meaning my loss was now £20 instead of £6. This also meant that if I had accepted the inintial £6 loss it wouldnt have materialised anyway!

It blemished an otherwise diciplined well thought out days trading so I am not too disheartened. In fact its a timely reminder of core strategy and the only thing more important than NOT TO LOSE MONEY which is DONT CHASE LOSSES.

Ticking along nicely

Results from 7th March - Day 11:



I was pleased with saturdays trading results on the whole. Only one loss on the last race blemished an otherwise perfect afternoon. Even the zero return races were actually trading results netting out for zero rather than a loss making trade failing to win a race so thats very reassuring.

Some of the races today I struggled to find any oportunities - I have no idea what to do when you have a race with 18 runners with no clear favourite and the tightest odds on any horse are in the sixes? If anyone has some suggestions I would be keen to hear from you!

So I remained selective and chose races that suited my style. I refrained from dutching too, I tihnk its not worth the risk until my trading book is much much larger.

Looks good but too much risk

Results from 6th March - Day 10:



The results look pretty good today on reflection, but I felt I struggled all day and didnt feel confident. The positive gains hide the fact that I took more risk today than was necessary on several races. I initially tried scalping on a few races and ended up in the red. Rather than accept the loss I decided to selectively dutch the race and on two occasions I nearly lost the race to an unbacked selection. Luck was on my side but it made me realise it wont always be and that I must discontinue this practice. I could have lost most of my stake if luck had gone against me.

On a positive outlook I was pleased that I went 14 races with only 1 loss and 1 draw. My stats for March are looking good, I have only lost 1 race in 27 races over 3 days of trading.

I am still being selective with my trading - some races I just cant see an opportunity so end up sitting on the fence the whole way through. I am glad I am not jumping in to positions blindly but equally I need to broaden my understanding and knowledge of trading tactics to have the tools of the trade to deal with all eventualities. Maybe that's asking too much?

I am still very much focused on NOT LOSING MONEY as my primary goal. Once I have entered a trade my finger hovers over the 'current close' button in bet angel at all times. Generally I dont wait for more than a shift 2 ticks against me before I bail out. I may be down at that point but it least I am then in a position to take advantage of any opportunities at the current price rather than sitting and waiting during valuable minutes for the price to come back in the favour of my original position. Having said that I must get used to accepting the occasional loss as its part of trading - not letting a losing position change my tactics is vital (Lesson learnt)

I hope to trade again for some of tomorrows afternoon races - its back to basics again I think. My trading book is now at £74 so my tick size per trade is reset to 35p per tick.

Better stop before I get cocky...

Well hardly given the totals involved, but in all honestly I havent lost for 25 races. On the 20:20 race at Wolverhampton the favourite drifted to 6.6 and I had scalped to £1.50. I decided to hold back on greening up and took the position in-running hoping the odds would come in a bit and improve my return across the card. Before I knew it Bridgewater Boys had crossed the line first netting me £1.44! I stopped trading at that point before my luck ran out.

Results from 4th March - Day 9:

My third attempt at Trading

This is not my first attempt at sports trading. I had two brief flirtations last year. Needless to say that both attempts were ultimately unsuccessful.
The odds are heavily stacked against success for the novice trader. It takes time and money to learn how to trade but invariably your trading account is reduced to zero before you really get to grips with implementing the right strategies for the various types of markets/race you encounter.
Unlimited trading funds are not the answer to the problem. Nor is paper-trading as it doesnt replicate the stresses of real-life trading.

Despite having lost approximately £300 in a my first month of frenzied pre-race trading I still remained firmly confident that there was scope to improve and become successful. I decided that I needed some trading education and as luck would have it Peter Webb had just announced further one day seminars - I didnt hesitate to book a place.

The great thing about that day in Hook is that it provided many years worth of market experience into 1 days education. It provided the tools of the trade - types of market, ways to approach markets, considering all the options, correct entry points and correct exit points. I would rate it as an absolute must-do for anyone seriously interested in sports trading.

However on my return to trading, I immediately fell into another trap designed to relieve you of your money in double quick time - over-confidence. I was convinced that I knew what I was doing. I held on to losing positions in desperate hope, charged into markets before any analysis and went in running without a plan. Despite a strong start I once again fell into bad ways. Within another 4 weeks I had lost my second starting stake of £200.

To be honest at that point I nearly gave up. But I was so intrigued as to what successful traders had that I started to read up on the subject - something I had never considered up to that point. Ridiculous really when you think about it - why do we assume that we can be immediately successful at something when most skills in life take many months and years of serious studying.
I also stumbled on the missing ingredient and I think I must have been blind to not have pickd up on it earlier - trading psychology.

I will elaborate more on this in further posts but for now I will say that it is entirely repsonsible for my third attempt at trading and my current approach to each race, each day - Assess options, assess risk, implement, learn, remain neutral, STAY DISCIPLINED and most importantly - DO NOT LOSE MONEY.
Over-confidence is dangerous, already I am trying to suppress it and not get overly analytical about money and returns at this stage of progress. I must end the month with the same amount as I started with, thats all I am after as this achievement allows me to stay in the game and continue learning.

Enough for now...

100% success

Results from 1st March - Day 8:


Trading Account balance: +£60.15